Altseason: Everything You Need to Know

Introduction

Today’s deep dive will focus entirely on a phenomenon unique to the crypto market called altseason.

We’ll try to answer the following questions:

1. When will it start?

2. How long will it last?

3. Which projects could show the best performance?

But first, let’s define what the altseason actually is.

The altcoin season, or altseason, is a period when altcoins experience more aggressive growth than Bitcoin. In other words, it’s a time when Bitcoin’s price ($BTC) rises, but its dominance (BTC.D) drops. We’ll consider the start of altseason to be the point in the cycle when Bitcoin’s dominance hits a local peak, and the end of altseason will be marked by a new all-time high for the TOTAL2 index (the total market cap of the top 125 coins, excluding Bitcoin).

Looking Through the Lens of Past Altseasons

We’ve only seen two altseasons so far, while there were three Bitcoin cycles. This is mainly because the first Bitcoin cycle didn’t have a market full of altcoins yet. It’s hard to believe now, but the total market cap of all altcoins remained under $1 billion for a long time! It wasn’t until March 1, 2017, that we saw the first wave of significant altcoin growth. At that point, Bitcoin dominance dropped from around 96% and, within less than a year, reached around 36% on January 5, 2018. Bitcoin gave up about 60% of its market dominance to altcoins, leading to the total altcoin market cap (TOTAL2) of $470 billion!

The first major altseason lasted 310 days, with the index growing by around $470 billion — a 56,425% increase (or 564x).

The second global altseason came during the next cycle. At the start, the total altcoin market cap (TOTAL2) was $225 billion. On January 3, 2021, Bitcoin dominance, which had peaked at around 73%, started a slow decline, eventually falling sharply until it hit its lowest point on September 8, 2022. However, only half of this 614-day decline counts as the altseason, since the other half occurred during Bitcoin’s bear phase. The peak of the TOTAL2 index happened on November 10, 2021, coinciding exactly with Bitcoin’s price peak.

In total, the second altseason lasted 309 days, with the index rising by $1.5 trillion — a 650% increase (or 6.5x).

What’s fascinating is the coincidence here: both altseasons from different cycles lasted almost exactly the same amount of time, down to the day! The first altseason lasted 310 days, and the second one 309. But that’s not even the most surprising discovery we’ve made.

Halving’s Magical Effect on Cycle Timing

In our previous research, we looked at the total duration of a market cycle. Let me remind you: we noticed that in all three past cycles, the halving occurred at 62% of the cycle’s completion.

It seems like the halving really does have some sort of “magic” when it comes to market structure. Both global altseasons we described happened at the same time relative to the halving date.

In cycle (II), the halving took place on July 9, 2016, and the altseason kicked off on March 1, 2017 — 235 days later.

In cycle (III), the halving was on May 11, 2020, and the altseason began on January 3, 2021 — 237 days later.

Now here’s where it gets interesting:

In the previous article, we predicted that the peak of the current cycle (IV), based on the patterns of past cycles, should occur around October 18, 2025.

Now, if we take the halving date of this cycle, April 19, 2024, and add 235 days, we land on December 10, 2024, marking the potential start of the next altseason. That’s very close to the trend acceleration point we predicted earlier. But what’s even more interesting is if we add 310 days (the typical altseason duration from past cycles), we get… October 18, 2025!

So, using two different approaches, analyzing price actions across various tools (BTC, TOTAL2, BTC.D), we arrived at the same date for the cycle peak: October 18, 2025. Based on our analysis, this will mark the simultaneous peak for both Bitcoin and the TOTAL2 index.

To sum up the timing for the altseason in this current cycle, based on the patterns of previous ones:

• The altseason is expected to start on December 10, 2024, around 235 days after the halving (when we might also see a new peak in Bitcoin dominance).

• The altseason should last for 310 days, ending with Bitcoin’s growth peak on October 18, 2025.

Note that these aren’t predictions, but the results of an objective analysis of cyclical market structures. There’s no guarantee that the patterns of past cycles will repeat exactly, so don’t take these dates as set in stone.

Timing’s Clear, but What Does the Altseason Bring in Terms of Altcoin Growth?

If we take a look at the top 10 best projects in terms of performance from the last cycle, a pattern emerges — most coins that performed well in the third year of the cycle (2020) went into parabolic moves in the final year (2021):

Of course, there are exceptions (like SAND and KDA), but overall, the last cycle showed that betting on relatively strong players was more rational than hunting for “dark horses.” It’s quite possible that the current cycle will follow a similar logic, with strong projects continuing to dominate.

Who Are the Main Contenders for Parabolic Growth in This Cycle?

If we use tables and filters on CryptoRank.io to sort all coins by year-to-date (YTD) price changes and add a filter for a market cap above $100 million, we’ll see that 7 of the top 10 strongest tokens this year are meme coins. 

From a rational point of view, we have reasons to believe that the altseason might deliver the highest returns from the leaders in this sector.

However, if you’re hesitant about investing in meme coins or prefer tokens from larger tech projects, let’s check out the top 10 projects of this year with a market cap above $1 billion, excluding meme coins:

Conclusion

To sum it up, let’s analyze the timing and logic of past cycles and answer these key questions:

• When will the altseason start?
  According to our calculations, it’ll begin 235 days after the halving, which means December 10, 2024.

• How long will it last?
  Our estimates show it’ll run for 310 days, lasting until October 18, 2025.

• Which coins will perform best during the altseason?
  Most likely, the coins that have performed well leading up to the altseason. Right now, the main contenders for the biggest gains are meme coin leaders, alongside projects in the Blockchain, AI infrastructure, and CeFi categories.

Let’s hope this cycle repeats the structure of previous ones, and we witness the much-anticipated, third global altseason. Best of luck to us all!